The data are then converted to Gt CO2 by multiplying by 44/12 (the molecular weight of CO2 / atomic weight of carbon). Exactly in that claimed differentiation lies the big lie. The size of each annual pulse equals emissions for that year. Nature cannot differentiate between N-CO2 and A-CO2. P2 = amount remaining after 1 year This is the first part of an X part series of posts aimed at summarising what we know, aiming to zero in on “the truth” about CO2 sequestration rates from the atmosphere. For example Willis Eschenbach writing on WUWT: So my question is, how do the sinks know the difference? : neither your houseplant, nor the trees in the forest, nor the primary producers (algae) in the water give the slightest hoot about the source of the CO2 they consume to grow. You may recall, over the last 400,000 years, the earth has experienced four major ice ages, each lasting in the order of 100,000 years and separated by relatively brief interglacial periods of 10,000 or so years. 18.5 y 34% Nor could the plants differentiate between fossil fuel derived “anthropogenic” (A-CO2) and natural volcanism derived N-CO2, even if they wanted to. We can therefore assume, all other things being equal, that about half of the CO2 emitted between 1750 and 2010 has remained in the atmosphere and that the other half has been absorbed, either by vegetation or by the oceans. The half life of ~27 years is equivalent to a residence time for CO2 of 39 years. They are all acting simultaneously. Methane has increased as a result of human activities related to agriculture, natural gas distribution and landfi lls. A couple of weeks ago Roger Andrews had a post called The residence time of CO2 in the atmosphere is …. But you and I know that this is not true! Both of these enhanced uptakes are brought about by the increased partial pressure of CO2 in the atmosphere. For example, for annual decline of 5% r=0.95. I hope to show why the bomb data give a false picture. After 13 years, half of pulse one is gone and so forth. Leakage of injected CO2 is a major concern in saline aquifer storage of anthropogenic CO2. With the last ice age having ended between 5,000 and 10,000 years ago, the next one could be just around the corner. ∞ 22%. The purpose here is to illustrate how the model works. Closer to but not exactly the same as Roger’s result (Figure 4). Another guy who doesn't have the first clue about…, This is a joke. The black line (right hand scale) is the atmosphere based on observed CO2 at Mauna Loa. Understanding exponential decline and half life. In the financial markets, the action of “doubling down” may be beneficial to some people at some time but most of the time and for most people it rather leads to financial ruin; if you don’t believe me, just ask any good financial advisor about that. Figures 5, 6, 7 and 8 show what these different time slices weighted according to the % of emissions they apply to look like. re the half-life of atmospheric CO2 : The main sink of atmospheric CO2 is the ocean. With the 45 year time scale involved from 1965 to 2010 this makes little to no difference. In this comment to Roger’s post Phil Chapman presented an idea of redistribution of a slug of CO2 between the fast reservoirs. , each lasting in the order of 100,000 years and separated by relatively brief interglacial periods of 10,000 or so years. The Bern model uses 4 different time constants from fast to slow and infinity and this post illustrates how this works. Individual isotopes of some elements have half lives. The corals or oysters in the water also don’t care how any of the CO2 got there; they simply combine dissolved calcium and carbonate ions to calcium carbonate that form their hard exteriors. The truth is substantially different from the new claim: In fact, over 30 independent studies, using different methods, have concluded that the half-life of CO2 in the air is only in the order of seven years, not in the tens, hundreds or mind-boggling ten thousands of years! The residence time is defined as follows: My XL spread sheet model has the exponential decline rate as the main input variable where: P1 = initial amount Consequently, anthropogenic CO2 will still be in the atmosphere in 50,000 years’ time, and even 100,000 years, which is enough to prevent any glaciation.” There is no modelling need to introduce a multi time constant model such as the Bern Model. To begin with, deep ice cores taken in Antarctica have clearly shown that the CO2 levels in the atmosphere rose AFTER the onset of warming, with a time lag of nearly 1,000 years. The Blue wedge at bottom is the pre-1965 emissions stack that is also declined at 2.5% per annum. Principia Scientific International (PSI) is a not-for-profit community interest association. Therefore the time over which CO2 is still available for leakage is an important timescale in aquifer CO2 storage. No I wrote tested. And I currently believe that for the same reasons natural variations in d13C are unlikely to be useful tracers either. Weaker members of the group would soon perish from the lack of a vital nutrient. Sequestration of CO2 from the atmosphere can be modelled using a single exponential decay constant of 2.5% per annum. Notably 1126Gt CO2 has been added but only 516 Gt remains and this fits the overall observation of CO2 sequestration reducing emissions by 54%. It also allows me to estimate half life from the output. Half-life refers to the time it takes for half of a radioactive substance to decay. Carbon dioxide is also released in natural processes such as the decay of plant matter. This may sound complicated but I hope to make it simple to understand. And it is worth declaring that until a few weeks ago I had barely heard of it. Of course it doesn’t stay in the atmosphere for ever. a0 + sum(i=1,3)(ai.exp(-t/Taui)) , Where a0 = 0.217, a1 = 0.259, a2 = 0.338, a3 = 0.186, Tau1 = 172.9 years, Tau2 = 18.51 years, and Tau3 = 1.186 years. What we kind of know for sure is that in 1965 the mass of CO2 in the atmosphere was roughly 2400 Gt (billion tonnes) and today (2010) it is roughly 2924 Gt. Tweaking the input variables of the Bern model or the atmosphere model it should be quite straight forward to produce a better fit. The corals or oysters in the water also don’t care how any of the CO2 got there; they simply combine dissolved calcium and carbonate ions to calcium carbonate that form their hard exteriors. In part 2 I hope to illustrate using simple models why the bomb 14C cannot be used to model CO2 sequestration rates. We seem to know that different processes remove CO2 at different rates. How is this reconciled with the warnings of climatic meltdown? Since CO2 emissions can be matched to atmosphere evolution using different modelling approaches it is clear that the approach of matching model to observations provides no proof of the underlying process. In Figure 2, the single pulse declining at 5% per annum (Figure 1) is the layer labelled as (1) in 1965 (Figure 2). We can now expand this model to a full time series, 1965 to 2010 and adjust the exponential decline rate that the model uses to produce a best fit between the model and the observed evolution of CO2 in the atmosphere (Figure 3). Schellnhuber and associates have now proclaimed the half-life of CO2 in the atmosphere to be nearly 5,000 times longer than that obtained from many other studies. taken in Antarctica have clearly shown that the CO2 levels in the atmosphere rose AFTER the onset of warming, with a time lag of nearly 1,000 years. The chemical precipitation of limestone in water is no different either. Because of sequestration into the oceans and biosphere the amount of CO2 left in the atmosphere is always much lower than the amount we have added. As we shall see in Part 2, the atomic bomb 14C data suggests a much more rapid decline of 7% per year that yields a half life of ~5 years that creates the need for some of the increase in CO2 to come from other sources. Note this is slightly convex up while the next two charts are concave up and combining the two provides a way of producing the observed linear increase in CO2. Is Sustainable Energy Even Possible Globally? The PIKsians try to sell you on the idea that it does. Lessons From A Chicken Wire Stack On Moon, Global Cooling: Beware the Snowman Cometh. Pingback: AWED Energy & Environmental Newsletter: September 29, 2014 - Master Resource, Pingback: Recent Energy And Environmental News – September 29th 2014 | PA Pundits - International, Click image to download live UK grid data, So my question is, how do the sinks know the difference? 33 years? 2. A simple example ought to demonstrate the fallacy of the claimed CO2 dualism: If you have two identical coins in your pocket and you spend one of them to buy a loaf of bread, does it make any difference to your remaining money, or to the baker, as to which one of the two coins you actually used to pay for your purchase? Portions copyright © Principia Scientific International. Nature has no different assimilation rates for N-CO2 and A-CO2. 1.2 y 18% This confirms Roger Andrew’s assertion from a couple of weeks ago that it was possible to model sequestration of CO2 from the atmosphere using a single decline constant. that stimulated a lot of high quality debate and for me a lot of new information came to light.